ABSTRACT
Objectives: To compare the observed and forecasted crime trends in Barcelona, using crime statistics from January 2018 to March 2021. Methods: We trained (seasonal) auto-regressive integrated moving average modelling (95% confidence intervals) using daily recorded crimes from January 2018 to February 2020. These models were then used to forecast crime data from March 2020 to March 2021 across four periods (lockdown, summer, fall and winter). Crime data were organized into two categories: property (burglary, theft) and violent crimes (robbery, assault, domestic violence and sexual offenses [rape, assault or abuse]). Results: Overall, crime levels for property and violent crimes during lockdown declined sharply from the forecasted levels. Theft, burglary, assault, robbery and sexual offenses exhibited general decreases throughout the study period, with the same sharp declines during the lockdown, progressive recovery in the summer, and steady or slight reductions from fall to March 2021. Only domestic violence differed, reaching the forecasted levels for all periods and surpassing the forecast for summer 2020. Conclusions: Our findings show how the pandemic has affected mid-term crime trends. They help to place the measures applied in the last year into context and to determine the most suitable policies to reduce crime during societal change.
ABSTRACT
En la notificación nº 366 "Enfermedad de Coronavirus" publicada por el Ministerio de Sanidad en fecha 03/05/2021, con los datos individualizados notificados por las CCAA a la Red Nacional de Vigilancia Epidemiológica (al sistema SiViEs), se indica que están notificados en España 3 540 430 casos de COVID-19 de los cuales 78 293 son fallecidos. Del total de casos notificados, corresponden al personal sanitario y sociosanitario unos 80 065 (2.26%) casos de COVID-19 notificados con diagnóstico posterior al 10 de mayo de 2020, siendo significativamente mayor el porcentaje entre las mujeres (77.95% o 62 416 casos) que entre los hombres (21.95% o 17 582 casos). Además, a la cifra de 80.065 casos se deben sumar un total de 35.548 casos declarados desde el inicio de la pandemia hasta el 7/05/2020(3), obteniendo una cifra total de 115 613 casos notificados de COVID-19 en personal sanitario.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Occupational Diseases , Health Personnel , Humans , SARS-CoV-2ABSTRACT
The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.